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April 24, 2024 12:51 PM UTC
March durable goods orders are in line with expectations with a 2.6% increase overall, 0.2% ex transport, keeping trend near flat, with non-defense capital ex aircraft seeing similarly modest 0.2% increases in both orders and shipments.
April 24, 2024 11:06 AM UTC
According to revised official national accounts data, the EZ economy was in recession in H2 last year, albeit modestly so and against a backdrop of marked, if not increasing, national growth divergences. This geographical variation is likely to have continued into Q1 (Figure 1) where we see a flat o
April 24, 2024 9:30 AM UTC
Total non-financial sector debt, plus the IMF estimates of government debt/GDP, do seem to matter for the action of China authorities, as fiscal policy stimulus is targeted rather aggressive as in 2009 or 2015. The overall debt picture also matters for the growth outlook, as the excess debt/GDP le
April 24, 2024 9:26 AM UTC
Bottom line: According to the Monetary Policy Review Report by the South African Reserve Bank (SARB) on April 23, the risk of higher inflation still remains and inflation returning to the midpoint of the target band is only expected in the last quarter of 2025. SARB highlighted in its report that ma
April 24, 2024 12:00 AM UTC
EMERGING ASIA
EM currencies perform mostly individually against the USD as the greenback fell in the New York session with improving sentiment. THB saw the largest losses of 0.18%, followed by CNH 0.13%, MYR 0.07% and CNY 0.02%; while the biggest winner is TWD by 0.17%, IDR 0.09%, KRW 0.08%, PHP 0.06
April 23, 2024 5:36 PM UTC
We expect April’s ISM services index to see a modest increase to 52.0 from 51.6, pausing after two straight declines, leaving the index with no clear trend, and continuing to imply modest expansion.
April 23, 2024 2:16 PM UTC
March new home sales at 693k are stronger than expected, up 8.8% from a downwardly revised February to their highest level since September, though still moving in quite a narrow range with Q2 sales vulnerable to higher mortgage rates.